Josh Thomson vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-9-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
153 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh ThomsonNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz62%
Josh Thomson 38%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 62% favorite over Josh Thomson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Thomson's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1674), separated by just 10 points.
Josh Thomson finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Josh Thomson and Nate Diaz share 1 common opponent: Tony Ferguson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.