Josh Thomson vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-9-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
153 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1637 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-12→ 1673
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Josh ThomsonNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz58%
Josh Thomson 42%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 58% favorite over Josh Thomson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Thomson's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1673), separated by just 12 points.
Josh Thomson finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Josh Thomson and Nate Diaz share 1 common opponent: Tony Ferguson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.