Josh Thomson vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-9-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
153 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1637 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Josh Thomson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1696
If they lose-13→ 1672
If they win+13→ 1671
If they lose-11→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Josh ThomsonTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson61%
Josh Thomson 39%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 61% favorite over Josh Thomson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Thomson's way (46%).
Josh Thomson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1658, a 27-point edge.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Josh Thomson finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Josh Thomson and Tony Ferguson share 3 common opponents: King Green, Bobby Green and Nate Diaz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
Loss Decision · 2014
LossSubmission (Arm Triangle Choke) · 2023