Joshua Burkman vs Zak Ottow
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-18-0Record20-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
39,0"Reach40,5"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Pit Elevated Fight TeamTeamPura Vida BJJ
What's at stake
Zak Ottow is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Joshua Burkman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1657
If they lose-11→ 1633
If they win+11→ 1671
If they lose-13→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joshua BurkmanZak Ottow
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zak Ottow70%
Joshua Burkman 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Zak Ottow a 70% favorite over Joshua Burkman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Zak Ottow holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1660 to 1644, a 16-point edge.
Joshua Burkman enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Joshua Burkman finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Zak Ottow 75%.
Joshua Burkman and Zak Ottow share 1 common opponent: Alex Morono.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.