Combat Edge Intelligence

Josiah Harrell vs Roan Carneiro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record21-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'11"
68"Reach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Grove City BJJTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josiah HarrellNow 1699
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
1.46
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.82
TBD
Strike defense
63%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.05
TBD
Takedown accuracy
42%
TBD
Takedown defense
83%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Josiah HarrellRoan Carneiro
16501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
4 (36%)
Submission
9 (43%)
1 (9%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Josiah Harrell70%
Roan Carneiro 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josiah Harrell a 70% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roan Carneiro's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1700), separated by just 1 points.

Josiah Harrell finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.

Roan Carneiro carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.