Combat Edge Intelligence

Josua Hernández vs Marcos Vinicius

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record1-3-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'6"
65"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Invictus No Love TeamTeamZe Mario Team

What's at stake

Josua Hernández is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Marcos Vinicius carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Josua HernándezNow 1478
If they win+21→ 1499
If they lose-27→ 1451
Marcos ViniciusNow 1429
If they win+27→ 1456
If they lose-21→ 1408

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1499 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
25%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Josua HernándezMarcos Vinicius
1450150020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (50%)
Submission
1 (100%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Josua Hernández70%
Marcos Vinicius 30%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Josua Hernández a 70% favorite over Marcos Vinicius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Josua Hernández holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1478 to 1429, a 49-point edge.

Marcos Vinicius enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.