Combat Edge Intelligence

Josua Hernández vs Nick Garcia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record9-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
65"Reach70,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Invictus No Love TeamTeamBlackline MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Josua HernándezNow 1478
If they win+24→ 1502
If they lose-24→ 1454
Nick GarciaNow 1479
If they win+24→ 1503
If they lose-24→ 1455

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1499 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.97
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.36
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.38
TBD
Takedown accuracy
44%
TBD
Takedown defense
75%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Josua HernándezNick Garcia
150020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
1 (50%)
Submission
6 (67%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Josua Hernández53%
Nick Garcia 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josua Hernández a 53% favorite over Nick Garcia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nick Garcia's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1478 vs 1479), separated by just 1 points.

Nick Garcia 89%.

Nick Garcia carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.