José Aldo vs Marlon Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-10-0Record23-13-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'6"
70"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
José Aldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Marlon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1789
If they lose-16→ 1765
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-8→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
José AldoMarlon Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
José Aldo73%
Marlon Moraes 27%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes José Aldo a 73% favorite over Marlon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
José Aldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1653, a 128-point edge.
José Aldo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marlon Moraes enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
José Aldo finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Moraes 70%.
José Aldo and Marlon Moraes share 2 common opponents: Merab Dvalishvili and Rob Font.
José Aldo carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.