José Aldo vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-10-0Record28-9-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
70"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — José Aldo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1795
If they lose-10→ 1771
If they win+10→ 1840
If they lose-14→ 1816
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
José AldoMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway92%
José Aldo 8%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 92% favorite over José Aldo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1781, a 49-point edge.
José Aldo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
José Aldo finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
José Aldo and Max Holloway share 1 common opponent: Alexander Volkanovski.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.