José Aldo vs Merab Dvalishvili
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-10-0Record21-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
70"Reach 68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
Merab Dvalishvili is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — José Aldo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1795
If they lose-10→ 1771
If they win+10→ 1853
If they lose-14→ 1829
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1789 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
José AldoMerab Dvalishvili
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Merab Dvalishvili78%
José Aldo 22%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Merab Dvalishvili a 78% favorite over José Aldo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Merab Dvalishvili holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1843 to 1781, a 62-point edge.
José Aldo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
José Aldo finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Merab Dvalishvili 24%.
José Aldo and Merab Dvalishvili share 2 common opponents: Petr Yan and Marlon Moraes.
José Aldo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.