Combat Edge Intelligence

José Medina vs Mataeo Garner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-7-0Record4-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
74″Reach70"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Phuket Fight ClubTeamInferno MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

José MedinaNow 1536
If they win+16→ 1552
If they lose-16→ 1520
Mataeo GarnerNow 1534
If they win+24→ 1558
If they lose-24→ 1510

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.16
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
37%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
47%
Strike defense
TBD
0.40
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
28%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

José MedinaMataeo Garner
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (73%)
KO/TKO
1 (25%)
2 (18%)
Submission
1 (25%)
1 (9%)
Decision
2 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

José Medina55%
Mataeo Garner 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes José Medina a 55% favorite over Mataeo Garner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1536 vs 1534), separated by just 2 points.

José Medina enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

José Medina finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Mataeo Garner 50%.

José Medina carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.