Combat Edge Intelligence

Juan Díaz vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Juan Díaz
pe

Juan Díaz

“Pegajoso”

16-1-1BantamweightUFC

1726Good

Tale of the tape

16-1-1Record14-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight128 lbs
Entram GymTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Juan DíazNow 1726
If they win+16→ 1742
If they lose-16→ 1710
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+16→ 1741
If they lose-16→ 1709

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.82
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
40%
Strike accuracy
54%
5.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
61%
Strike defense
47%
3.01
Takedown avg.
6.01
33%
Takedown accuracy
39%
0%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Juan DíazRafael Estevam
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
3 (19%)
Submission
3 (21%)
8 (50%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Juan Díaz and Rafael Estevam within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1726 vs 1725), separated by just 1 points.

Juan Díaz enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Juan Díaz finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.