Juan Espino vs Justin Frazier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
80,0"ReachTBD
257 lbsWeight281 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWithout Limits MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Juan Espino is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Justin Frazier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1679
If they lose-18→ 1647
If they win+18→ 1634
If they lose-14→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Juan EspinoJustin Frazier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Juan Espino52%
Justin Frazier 48%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Juan Espino a 52% favorite over Justin Frazier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Juan Espino holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1616, a 49-point edge.
Juan Espino finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Justin Frazier 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.