Juan Puig vs Kyohei Hagiwara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam Smoker
What's at stake
Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Juan Puig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1483
If they lose-22→ 1435
If they win+15→ 1495
If they lose-17→ 1463
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Juan PuigKyohei Hagiwara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyohei Hagiwara61%
Juan Puig 39%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 61% favorite over Juan Puig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1480 to 1457, a 23-point edge.
Juan Puig enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Juan Puig finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.