Julian Erosa vs Julio Arce
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-13-0Record22-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'7"
74"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight147 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Julio Arce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Julian Erosa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1707
If they lose-11→ 1683
If they win+11→ 1725
If they lose-13→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julian ErosaJulio Arce
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julio Arce63%
Julian Erosa 37%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 63% favorite over Julian Erosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Julio Arce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1714 to 1694, a 20-point edge.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julian Erosa finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Julio Arce 55%.
Julian Erosa and Julio Arce share 1 common opponent: Hakeem Dawodu.
Julian Erosa carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.