Julian Erosa vs Marcin Wrzosek
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-13-0Record14-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'9"
74"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamFitFabric Shark Top Team
What's at stake
Julian Erosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Marcin Wrzosek carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1704
If they lose-15→ 1680
If they win+20→ 1619
If they lose-12→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Julian ErosaMarcin Wrzosek
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julian Erosa73%
Marcin Wrzosek 27%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Julian Erosa a 73% favorite over Marcin Wrzosek in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Julian Erosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1599, a 96-point edge.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcin Wrzosek enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julian Erosa finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Wrzosek 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.