Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-13-0Record26-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'1"Height5'10"
74"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1707
If they lose-12→ 1683
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julian ErosaMelquizael Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melquizael Costa52%
Julian Erosa 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Melquizael Costa a 52% favorite over Julian Erosa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Julian Erosa's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1695 vs 1682), separated by just 13 points.
Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julian Erosa finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Melquizael Costa 65%.
Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa share 1 common opponent: Christian Rodriguez.
Julian Erosa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.