Combat Edge Intelligence

Julian Erosa vs Teruto Ishihara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

31-13-0Record14-14-3
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
6'1"Height5'7"
74"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Julian Erosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Teruto Ishihara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Julian ErosaNow 1695
If they win+6→ 1701
If they lose-18→ 1677
Teruto IshiharaNow 1508
If they win+18→ 1526
If they lose-6→ 1502

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.21
Sig. strikes / min
3.26
49%
Strike accuracy
45%
6.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.63
49%
Strike defense
54%
1.78
Takedown avg.
0.50
44%
Takedown accuracy
17%
62%
Takedown defense
31%
0.73
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Julian ErosaTeruto Ishihara
150016001700202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (39%)
KO/TKO
11 (79%)
14 (45%)
Submission
1 (7%)
5 (16%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Julian Erosa79%
Teruto Ishihara 21%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Julian Erosa a 79% favorite over Teruto Ishihara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Julian Erosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1508, a 187-point edge.

Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Teruto Ishihara enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Julian Erosa finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Teruto Ishihara 86%.

Julian Erosa carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.