Julian Marquez vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-6-0Record34-18-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
72"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Factory XTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Sam Alvey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Julian Marquez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1595
If they lose-13→ 1563
If they win+10→ 1650
If they lose-14→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julian MarquezSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Alvey56%
Julian Marquez 44%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Alvey a 56% favorite over Julian Marquez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Sam Alvey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1576, a 64-point edge.
Julian Marquez enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Julian Marquez finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Sam Alvey carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.