Julianna Peña vs Sara McMann
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record14-7-0
Women's BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'5"
69"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
SikJitsuTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Julianna Peña is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Sara McMann carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1648
If they lose-17→ 1616
If they win+17→ 1631
If they lose-15→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julianna PeñaSara McMann
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julianna Peña56%
Sara McMann 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Julianna Peña a 56% favorite over Sara McMann in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Julianna Peña holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1633 to 1614, a 19-point edge.
Julianna Peña finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Sara McMann 43%.
Julianna Peña carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.