Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record15-4-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach75″
147 lbsWeight136 lbs
What's at stake
Montel Jackson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Julio Arce carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1727
If they lose-11→ 1703
If they win+15→ 1759
If they lose-17→ 1727
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1649 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1688 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julio ArceMontel Jackson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Montel Jackson60%
Julio Arce 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Montel Jackson a 60% favorite over Julio Arce in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Montel Jackson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1714, a 30-point edge.
Montel Jackson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Julio Arce finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Montel Jackson 60%.
Montel Jackson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.