Combat Edge Intelligence

Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-7-0Record15-4-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach75″
147 lbsWeight136 lbs
Team Tiger SchulmannTeamRed Schafer MMA

What's at stake

Montel Jackson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Julio Arce carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Julio ArceNow 1703
If they win+13→ 1716
If they lose-11→ 1692
Montel JacksonNow 1744
If they win+14→ 1758
If they lose-18→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.36
Sig. strikes / min
3.09
36%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.40
68%
Strike defense
61%
0.46
Takedown avg.
3
29%
Takedown accuracy
64%
96%
Takedown defense
68%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.32

Trajectory

Julio ArceMontel Jackson
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

7 (33%)
KO/TKO
8 (53%)
5 (24%)
Submission
1 (7%)
9 (43%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Montel Jackson60%
Julio Arce 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Montel Jackson a 60% favorite over Julio Arce in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Montel Jackson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1703, a 41-point edge.

Montel Jackson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Julio Arce finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Montel Jackson 60%.

Montel Jackson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.