Combat Edge Intelligence

Julio Arce vs Sheymon Moraes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record17-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach72"
147 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Tiger SchulmannTeamBlack House

What's at stake

Julio Arce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sheymon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Julio ArceNow 1714
If they win+11→ 1725
If they lose-13→ 1701
Sheymon MoraesNow 1684
If they win+17→ 1701
If they lose-15→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1649 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.36
Sig. strikes / min
3
36%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
68%
Strike defense
64%
0.46
Takedown avg.
0
29%
Takedown accuracy
0%
96%
Takedown defense
54%
0.35
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Julio ArceSheymon Moraes
17002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
7 (41%)
5 (23%)
Submission
1 (6%)
10 (45%)
Decision
9 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Julio Arce60%
Sheymon Moraes 40%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 60% favorite over Sheymon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Julio Arce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1714 to 1684, a 30-point edge.

Julio Arce finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Sheymon Moraes 47%.

Sheymon Moraes carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.