Combat Edge Intelligence

Julio Arce vs Sheymon Moraes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-7-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach72,0"
147 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Tiger SchulmannTeamBlack House

What's at stake

Julio Arce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sheymon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Julio ArceNow 1703
If they win+11→ 1714
If they lose-13→ 1690
Sheymon MoraesNow 1671
If they win+17→ 1688
If they lose-15→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.36
Sig. strikes / min
3
36%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
68%
Strike defense
64%
0.46
Takedown avg.
0
29%
Takedown accuracy
0%
96%
Takedown defense
54%
0.35
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Julio ArceSheymon Moraes
17002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (33%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
5 (24%)
Submission
1 (7%)
9 (43%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Julio Arce66%
Sheymon Moraes 34%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 66% favorite over Sheymon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Julio Arce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1671, a 32-point edge.

Julio Arce finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Sheymon Moraes 53%.

Sheymon Moraes carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.