Julio Arce vs Sheymon Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach72"
147 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
Julio Arce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Sheymon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1725
If they lose-14→ 1701
If they win+18→ 1684
If they lose-14→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Julio ArceSheymon Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julio Arce59%
Sheymon Moraes 41%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 59% favorite over Sheymon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Julio Arce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1666, a 49-point edge.
Julio Arce finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Sheymon Moraes 47%.
Sheymon Moraes carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.