Julio Arce vs Yadong Song
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record23-9-1
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach67"
147 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Tiger SchulmannTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 rated
What's at stake
Yadong Song is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Julio Arce carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1727
If they lose-11→ 1703
If they win+11→ 1761
If they lose-13→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1649 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1753 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julio ArceYadong Song
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yadong Song70%
Julio Arce 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Yadong Song a 70% favorite over Julio Arce in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Yadong Song holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1750 to 1714, a 36-point edge.
Julio Arce finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Yadong Song 57%.
Julio Arce carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.