Combat Edge Intelligence

Junior Assuncao vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-8-0Record8-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Ascension MMATeamGlendale Fighting Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Junior AssuncaoNow 1624
If they win+16→ 1640
If they lose-16→ 1608
Melsik BaghdasaryanNow 1624
If they win+16→ 1640
If they lose-16→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.31
Sig. strikes / min
5.04
63%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
44%
Strike defense
57%
2.43
Takedown avg.
0
24%
Takedown accuracy
0%
67%
Takedown defense
73%
0.70
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Junior AssuncaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
1650170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (25%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
7 (44%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (31%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Melsik Baghdasaryan71%
Junior Assuncao 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Melsik Baghdasaryan a 71% favorite over Junior Assuncao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Junior Assuncao's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1624 vs 1624), separated by just 0 points.

Junior Assuncao enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Junior Assuncao finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Melsik Baghdasaryan 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.