Junior dos Santos vs Paul Buentello
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record35-17-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"ReachTBD
250 lbsWeight205 lbs
Champion TeamTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
If they win+12→ 1655
If they lose-12→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior dos SantosPaul Buentello
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior dos Santos66%
Paul Buentello 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 66% favorite over Paul Buentello in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Buentello's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1643), separated by just 1 points.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Paul Buentello 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.