Junior dos Santos vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
77"Reach72,0"
250 lbsWeight249 lbs
Champion TeamTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Junior dos Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1653
If they lose-13→ 1629
If they win+13→ 1639
If they lose-11→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior dos SantosRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior dos Santos62%
Roy Nelson 38%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 62% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Junior dos Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1626, a 16-point edge.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Junior dos Santos and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Derrick Lewis.
Junior dos Santos carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.