Combat Edge Intelligence

Junior dos Santos vs Shane Carwin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

23-11-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"ReachTBD
250 lbsWeight254 lbs
Champion TeamTeamGrudge Training Center

What's at stake

Shane Carwin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+13→ 1655
If they lose-11→ 1631
Shane CarwinNow 1672
If they win+15→ 1687
If they lose-17→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.49
Sig. strikes / min
4.38
48%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
56%
Strike defense
54%
0.30
Takedown avg.
1.42
50%
Takedown accuracy
33%
82%
Takedown defense
43%
0.06
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Junior dos SantosShane Carwin
16501700200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

16 (70%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
1 (4%)
Submission
4 (33%)
6 (26%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Junior dos Santos and Shane Carwin within a point of even.

Shane Carwin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1642, a 30-point edge.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.