Combat Edge Intelligence

Junior dos Santos vs Steven Asplund

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-11-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'5"
77"Reach78"
250 lbsWeight261 lbs
Champion TeamTeamMcCune's Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
Steven AsplundNow 1644
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.49
Sig. strikes / min
10.05
48%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.64
56%
Strike defense
50%
0.30
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
82%
Takedown defense
100%
0.06
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Junior dos SantosSteven Asplund
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

16 (70%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
1 (4%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (26%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Steven Asplund63%
Junior dos Santos 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Steven Asplund a 63% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1644), separated by just 2 points.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Steven Asplund 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.