Junior dos Santos vs Stipe Miocic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach 80"
250 lbsWeight234 lbs
What's at stake
Stipe Miocic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1659
If they lose-8→ 1635
If they win+11→ 1777
If they lose-21→ 1745
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1805 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stipe Miocic56%
Junior dos Santos 44%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Stipe Miocic a 56% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Stipe Miocic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1643, a 123-point edge.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.
Junior dos Santos and Stipe Miocic share 1 common opponent: Francis Ngannou.
Stipe Miocic carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.