Junior dos Santos vs Tai Tuivasa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record14-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach75"
250 lbsWeight265 lbs
What's at stake
Junior dos Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tai Tuivasa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1653
If they lose-14→ 1629
If they win+18→ 1616
If they lose-14→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Junior dos SantosTai Tuivasa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior dos Santos54%
Tai Tuivasa 46%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 54% favorite over Tai Tuivasa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Junior dos Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1643 to 1598, a 45-point edge.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Tai Tuivasa enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Tai Tuivasa 93%.
Junior dos Santos and Tai Tuivasa share 4 common opponents: Robelis Despaigne, Ciryl Gane, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Derrick Lewis.
Junior dos Santos carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.