Junior dos Santos vs Yoshihiro Nakao
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record9-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
77"ReachTBD
250 lbsWeight215 lbs
Champion TeamTeamTeam Tackler
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior dos SantosYoshihiro Nakao
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior dos Santos57%
Yoshihiro Nakao 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 57% favorite over Yoshihiro Nakao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1642), separated by just 0 points.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Yoshihiro Nakao 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.