Junior Hernandez vs Lucas Martins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-1-0Record22-7-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
TBDHeight6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight145 lbs
Singpatong Muay Thai & MMATeamCapital da Luta
What's at stake
Lucas Martins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Junior Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+37→ 1507
If they lose-11→ 1459
If they win+6→ 1686
If they lose-18→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior HernandezLucas Martins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Martins79%
Junior Hernandez 21%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Martins a 79% favorite over Junior Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Lucas Martins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1680 to 1470, a 210-point edge.
Junior Hernandez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Junior Hernandez finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Martins 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.