Junior Tafa vs Mike Van Arsdale
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-6-0Record8-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
75"ReachTBD
249 lbsWeight205 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamTBD
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior TafaMike Van Arsdale
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior Tafa60%
Mike Van Arsdale 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior Tafa a 60% favorite over Mike Van Arsdale in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1560), separated by just 0 points.
Mike Van Arsdale enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Junior Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mike Van Arsdale 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.