Junior Tafa vs Mohammed Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-6-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
75"Reach79"
249 lbsWeight237 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamWar Room Kickboxing & MMA
What's at stake
Mohammed Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Junior Tafa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1580
If they lose-12→ 1548
If they win+12→ 1650
If they lose-20→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior TafaMohammed Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mohammed Usman52%
Junior Tafa 48%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Mohammed Usman a 52% favorite over Junior Tafa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Mohammed Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1560, a 78-point edge.
Junior Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.
Mohammed Usman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.