Junior Tafa vs Mohammed Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-6-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
75"Reach79"
249 lbsWeight237 lbs
What's at stake
Mohammed Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Junior Tafa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1582
If they lose-14→ 1550
If they win+14→ 1629
If they lose-18→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Junior TafaMohammed Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Junior Tafa53%
Mohammed Usman 47%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Junior Tafa a 53% favorite over Mohammed Usman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mohammed Usman's way (43%).
Mohammed Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1564, a 51-point edge.
Junior Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.
Mohammed Usman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.