Combat Edge Intelligence

Jussier Formiga vs Scott Jorgensen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-8-0Record15-12-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'5"
TBDReach37.00
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTwisted Genetiks

What's at stake

Jussier Formiga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Scott Jorgensen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jussier FormigaNow 1726
If they win+9→ 1735
If they lose-15→ 1711
Scott JorgensenNow 1628
If they win+20→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1616

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.42
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
40%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.41
64%
Strike defense
65%
1.82
Takedown avg.
2.61
35%
Takedown accuracy
46%
87%
Takedown defense
60%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.73

Trajectory

Jussier FormigaScott Jorgensen
16001650170017502013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
11 (46%)
Submission
5 (33%)
13 (54%)
Decision
8 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

Jussier Formiga78%
Scott Jorgensen 22%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Jussier Formiga a 78% favorite over Scott Jorgensen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Jussier Formiga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1628, a 98-point edge.

Jussier Formiga finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Scott Jorgensen 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.