Combat Edge Intelligence

Jussier Formiga vs Sergio Pettis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-8-0Record25-8-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'6"
TBDReach69"
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRoufusport

What's at stake

Sergio Pettis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jussier Formiga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jussier FormigaNow 1726
If they win+13→ 1739
If they lose-11→ 1715
Sergio PettisNow 1752
If they win+11→ 1763
If they lose-13→ 1739

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1681 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.42
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
40%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
64%
Strike defense
65%
1.82
Takedown avg.
0.85
35%
Takedown accuracy
37%
87%
Takedown defense
68%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Jussier FormigaSergio Pettis
170017502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (20%)
11 (46%)
Submission
4 (16%)
13 (54%)
Decision
16 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

Sergio Pettis70%
Jussier Formiga 30%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Sergio Pettis a 70% favorite over Jussier Formiga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Sergio Pettis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1726, a 26-point edge.

Jussier Formiga finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Pettis 36%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.