Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Buchholz vs Mac Danzig

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-11-0Record22-12-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
IndependentTeamDanzig MMA

What's at stake

Mac Danzig is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Justin Buchholz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Justin BuchholzNow 1532
If they win+14→ 1546
If they lose-10→ 1522
Mac DanzigNow 1597
If they win+10→ 1607
If they lose-14→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.39
27%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.44
51%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
1.20
0%
Takedown accuracy
38%
33%
Takedown defense
46%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Justin BuchholzMac Danzig
15501600201620172018

Win method breakdown

8 (53%)
KO/TKO
5 (23%)
6 (40%)
Submission
11 (50%)
1 (7%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Justin Buchholz and Mac Danzig within a point of even.

Mac Danzig holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1597 to 1532, a 65-point edge.

Justin Buchholz finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Mac Danzig 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.