Justin Buchholz vs Matt Wiman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-11-0Record16-10-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach68,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
IndependentTeamSkrap Pack
What's at stake
Matt Wiman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Justin Buchholz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1546
If they lose-10→ 1522
If they win+10→ 1615
If they lose-14→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin BuchholzMatt Wiman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Wiman70%
Justin Buchholz 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Wiman a 70% favorite over Justin Buchholz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Matt Wiman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1605 to 1532, a 73-point edge.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Buchholz finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Matt Wiman 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.