Justin Burlinson vs Miguel Baeza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record10-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'2"
74"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
The Dungeon BJJ and MMA AcademyTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin BurlinsonMiguel Baeza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Miguel Baeza61%
Justin Burlinson 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Miguel Baeza a 61% favorite over Justin Burlinson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Burlinson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1651), separated by just 1 points.
Justin Burlinson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Justin Burlinson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Miguel Baeza 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.