Justin Davis vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Dark Horse GymTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Justin Davis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1448
If they lose-15→ 1416
If they win+15→ 1474
If they lose-17→ 1442
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin DavisLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte75%
Justin Davis 25%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 75% favorite over Justin Davis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1431, a 28-point edge.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.