Justin Frazier vs Mac Papalii
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record2-0-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
281 lbsWeight273 lbs
Without Limits MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamBattle Box· 1580 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Justin Frazier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Mac Papalii carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1629
If they lose-19→ 1597
If they win+28→ 1583
If they lose-20→ 1535
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin FrazierMac Papalii
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii54%
Justin Frazier 46%Elo baseline: 41%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 54% favorite over Justin Frazier in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Frazier's way (41%).
Justin Frazier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1555, a 61-point edge.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Justin Frazier finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.