Justin Frazier vs Ricardo Morais
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record10-4-1
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'8"
TBDReachTBD
281 lbsWeight270 lbs
Without Limits MMATeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+15→ 1631
If they lose-17→ 1599
If they win+17→ 1622
If they lose-15→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin FrazierRicardo Morais
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Frazier67%
Ricardo Morais 33%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Frazier a 67% favorite over Ricardo Morais in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1616 vs 1605), separated by just 11 points.
Justin Frazier finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Morais 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.