Justin Frazier vs Tom Erikson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record9-4-1
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
281 lbsWeight280 lbs
Without Limits MMATeamTBD
What's at stake
Justin Frazier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Tom Erikson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1630
If they lose-18→ 1598
If they win+18→ 1582
If they lose-14→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin FrazierTom Erikson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Frazier63%
Tom Erikson 37%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Frazier a 63% favorite over Tom Erikson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Justin Frazier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1564, a 52-point edge.
Tom Erikson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Frazier finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tom Erikson 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.