Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Guthrie vs Leonardo Damiani

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record12-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Colorado Fight FactoryTeamAurora MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin GuthrieNow 1575
If they win+16→ 1591
If they lose-16→ 1559
Leonardo DamianiNow 1578
If they win+16→ 1594
If they lose-16→ 1562

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.78
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
59%
Strike accuracy
24%
7.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.17
52%
Strike defense
38%
0.11
Takedown avg.
0
25%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
75%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Justin GuthrieLeonardo Damiani
1550160020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
7 (39%)
Submission
6 (50%)
6 (33%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Leonardo Damiani53%
Justin Guthrie 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Leonardo Damiani a 53% favorite over Justin Guthrie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1575 vs 1578), separated by just 3 points.

Leonardo Damiani enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Justin Guthrie finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Damiani 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.