Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Jaynes vs Kacper Wróbel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record3-1-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
68"Reach-
159 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamWCA Warszawa

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin JaynesNow 1553
If they win+12→ 1565
If they lose-12→ 1541
Kacper WróbelNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1591 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.34
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
44%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
63%
Strike defense
TBD
0.75
Takedown avg.
TBD
40%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
20%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.12
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Justin JaynesKacper Wróbel
1550160020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (67%)
6 (38%)
Submission
1 (33%)
2 (13%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Kacper Wróbel61%
Justin Jaynes 39%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kacper Wróbel a 61% favorite over Justin Jaynes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Jaynes's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1553 vs 1548), separated by just 5 points.

Justin Jaynes finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Kacper Wróbel 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.