Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Jaynes vs Lance Lawrence

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record8-4-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
68"ReachTBD
159 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin JaynesNow 1553
If they win+12→ 1565
If they lose-12→ 1541
Lance LawrenceNow 1555
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1591 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.34
Sig. strikes / min
5.87
44%
Strike accuracy
50%
5.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
9.80
63%
Strike defense
25%
0.75
Takedown avg.
1
40%
Takedown accuracy
100%
20%
Takedown defense
50%
1.12
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Justin JaynesLance Lawrence
155016002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
6 (38%)
Submission
5 (63%)
2 (13%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Lawrence63%
Justin Jaynes 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Lawrence a 63% favorite over Justin Jaynes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1553 vs 1555), separated by just 2 points.

Justin Jaynes finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Lance Lawrence 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.