Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Lawrence vs Leo Brichta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-0Record14-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReach72"
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Power MMATeamHanuman Thai Boxing

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin LawrenceNow 1605
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Leo BrichtaNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.96
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
35%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.43
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
68%
Strike defense
TBD
1.38
Takedown avg.
TBD
29%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
73%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Justin LawrenceLeo Brichta
1600165020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
8 (57%)
1 (9%)
Submission
4 (29%)
5 (45%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Leo Brichta60%
Justin Lawrence 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Leo Brichta a 60% favorite over Justin Lawrence in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1606), separated by just 1 points.

Justin Lawrence finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Leo Brichta 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.