Justin Lawrence vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record28-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach69"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Power MMATeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Justin Lawrence carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1629
If they lose-7→ 1597
If they win+5→ 1835
If they lose-19→ 1811
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin LawrenceMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway89%
Justin Lawrence 11%Elo baseline: 79%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 89% favorite over Justin Lawrence in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1604, a 226-point edge.
Justin Lawrence finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.