Justin McCully vs Kacper Paczóski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-2Record4-0-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'7"
TBDReach-
235 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team PunishmentTeamUniq Fight Club· 1591 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
If they win+24→ 1622
If they lose-24→ 1574
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1487 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin McCullyKacper Paczóski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin McCully51%
Kacper Paczóski 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin McCully a 51% favorite over Kacper Paczóski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1598), separated by just 1 points.
Justin McCully enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kacper Paczóski enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Justin McCully finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Kacper Paczóski 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.