Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin McCully vs Karl Williams

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-2Record10-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
TBDReach79"
235 lbsWeight247 lbs
Team PunishmentTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin McCullyNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
Karl WilliamsNow 1594
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1603 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.58
Sig. strikes / min
2.68
38%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.15
47%
Strike defense
56%
1.28
Takedown avg.
4.20
44%
Takedown accuracy
49%
44%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Justin McCullyKarl Williams
16001650170020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
6 (55%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (36%)
Decision
7 (70%)

Combat Edge model read

Karl Williams52%
Justin McCully 48%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 52% favorite over Justin McCully in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin McCully's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1594), separated by just 5 points.

Justin McCully enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Justin McCully finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Karl Williams 30%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.