Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin McCully vs Marcus Buchecha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-2Record5-3-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
TBDReach80"
235 lbsWeight254 lbs
Team PunishmentTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Justin McCullyNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
Marcus BuchechaNow 1593
If they win+24→ 1617
If they lose-24→ 1569

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1625 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.58
Sig. strikes / min
1.70
38%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
47%
Strike defense
51%
1.28
Takedown avg.
2
44%
Takedown accuracy
17%
44%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Justin McCullyMarcus Buchecha
160020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
6 (55%)
Submission
4 (80%)
4 (36%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Justin McCully and Marcus Buchecha within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1593), separated by just 6 points.

Justin McCully enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Justin McCully finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Buchecha 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.